Finesse or Drop

A missing queen with nine cards between the hands falls under the ace and king 53.13 percent of the time, while a simple finesse wins 50. Holding eight cards, the drop sinks to 32.78 percent and the finesse is clearly better. The table puts the figures for seven, eight, nine and ten cards side by side.

Holding nine cards, four are missing. The queen drops in two rounds if it is doubleton, which covers every 2-2 break at 40.70 percent, or if it is singleton, which is a quarter of the 3-1 breaks and adds 12.44. Those two together come to 53.13, a little better than the even-money finesse.

Holding eight, five are missing and the arithmetic turns against the drop. The queen now has to be doubleton, two fifths of the 3-2 breaks (27.13 percent), or singleton, a fifth of the 4-1 breaks (5.65). The total of 32.78 is well short of 50, so the finesse is the percentage play.

At nine cards the margin is small, and it is easily overturned.

Eight ever, nine never is the right play before anything is known. It gives way to any real information. If one defender has bid a long suit, the vacant places make the queen likelier to sit with the other defender, and many good players will play that defender for it even holding nine. A defender who shows out of another suit early changes the odds the same way.

Entries matter too. A finesse needs the lead from the right hand, and if the only way to get there costs a trick elsewhere, the drop can be the better line even holding eight. The suit break odds table gives the splits behind these figures. Many holdings also offer extra chances, such as a lower card that guards against one bad break, and those are covered in suit combinations and safety play.

What does eight ever, nine never mean?

It is a rule for a missing queen. Holding eight cards, always finesse. Holding nine, never finesse and play the ace and king hoping the queen drops.

What are the odds of the queen dropping with nine cards?

The queen drops 53.13 percent of the time with nine cards held, against 50 percent for a simple finesse. It falls whenever the suit breaks 2-2 or the queen is singleton.

What are the odds of the queen dropping with eight cards?

Only 32.78 percent. Five cards are missing, so the queen needs to be singleton or doubleton, and the finesse at 50 percent is much better.

Should you ever finesse with nine cards?

Yes, when the bidding or the early play tells you where the length lies. The edge for the drop is small, so a single clue about the defenders' shape is enough to tip the choice.