Hand Evaluation in Bridge

Points are a stand-in. What every bid really claims is a number of tricks, and since nobody can count tricks during the auction, we count points and trust the two to agree. Bridge hand evaluation is the skill of knowing when they do and when they do not. This guide covers the point count every player learns first, its known flaws, and the adjustments good players make before they bid.

High-card points (HCP) use the Milton Work scale: ace 4, king 3, queen 2, jack 1. There are 40 HCP in the deck and the average hand holds 10. An opening bid at the one level usually needs 12 or 13. A 1NT opening shows 15 to 17 in most modern systems.

HCP are easy to count and good enough for balanced hands headed for notrump. They are less reliable for shapely hands and suit contracts, for three reasons:

• Aces are undervalued. An ace takes a trick almost every time, in any contract. Simulations put it closer to 4.5 points than 4.
• Queens and jacks are overvalued. Points from "quacks" often do not take tricks unless they sit with higher honors in the same suit.
• Shape is ignored. A 5-5 hand with 10 HCP can take more tricks than a flat 13-count. HCP alone cannot see that.

Tens and nines are worth something too. They are not counted, but they make a holding like KJ9 better than KJ2, because the nine gives declarer an extra finesse.

To account for shape, players add distribution points. There are two methods, and they apply at different moments.

Length points, before a fit

Add 1 point for every card beyond four in a suit. A five-card suit adds 1, a six-card suit adds 2. Use length points when you open the bidding or describe your own hand, because long suits produce extra tricks once the outstanding cards are gone. The rule of 20 is another way of building length into the decision to open.

Shortness points, once a fit is found

Shortness only helps if you can ruff, so count it only when you have support for partner's suit. As dummy, with trump support:

Each hand gets one method. Opener starts with length points, and responder raising partner switches to shortness points. A singleton king or queen can be counted as shortness or as high cards, but only once.

Two more counts measure the high cards that take tricks fast. They matter most for opening decisions, defense against high contracts, and slam bidding.

Most opening hands hold at least two quick tricks. Controls count an ace as 2 and a king as 1, giving 12 in the deck. They decide slams more than points do. Two hands with 33 points can still be missing the ace and king of the same suit. Some partnerships use control-showing responses to a strong 2♣ opening for exactly that reason.

Once the raw count is done, experienced players move the hand up or down a point or two. The common adjustments:

• Honors in long suits are worth more. KQJ in a five-card suit will take tricks. The same points spread across short suits may not.
• Honors together are worth more. KQ or QJ in one suit support each other. A lone queen or jack is often wasted.
• Unsupported honors are worth less. A singleton king, Qx or Jx should be downgraded, unless partner has bid the suit.
• A 4-3-3-3 hand is worth less. Deduct a point. It has no ruffing value and no long suit to set up.
• Aces and tens are worth more. Add a little for three or four aces, or for several tens and nines.

The targets below are for the combined count of both hands, high cards plus distribution once a fit is known. They are where the contract becomes roughly a good bet, not a guarantee. The bridge scoring guide explains why vulnerable games are worth bidding a little lighter at IMPs.

Minor suit games need more because they need eleven tricks. Holding 25 to 27 points and a minor suit fit, you are usually better off in 3NT.

The auction keeps giving you information, and your hand's value moves with it. Suppose you hold ♠K842 ♥5 ♦QJ73 ♣A964, 10 HCP. Partner opens 1♠. With four trumps and a singleton heart, your hand is worth 13 dummy points, a limit raise or more. If partner had opened 1♥, the singleton would be a liability and the hand would stay at 10.

• Honors in partner's suits go up. A queen in partner's long suit fills a gap, while a queen in a side suit may not.
• Honors facing partner's shortness go down. If partner splinters in diamonds, your ♦QJ73 is worth almost nothing.
• Misfits go down sharply. When neither partner can support the other, deduct points and stop low.
• Fits go up. A nine- or ten-card fit makes the hands play for more tricks than the points suggest.

For a summary of the point ranges each opening and response shows, see the bridge bidding cheat sheet.

What is hand evaluation in bridge?

Hand evaluation is judging how many tricks your hand is likely to take, so you know how high to bid. Most players start with high-card points and then adjust for long suits, shortness, a fit with partner and the quality of their honors.

How many points do you need to open in bridge?

Usually 12 or 13 high-card points for a one-level opening, or fewer with a shapely hand that meets the rule of 20. A 1NT opening needs 15 to 17 in most systems.

How many points are needed for game in bridge?

About 25 to 26 combined points for 3NT or four of a major with a fit, and about 29 for five of a minor. A small slam needs about 33 and a grand slam 37.

What does HCP mean in bridge?

High-card points: ace 4, king 3, queen 2, jack 1. There are 40 in the deck and an average hand has 10.

Should I count length points and shortness points?

Count length points when you describe your own hand, as opener. Switch to shortness points when you support partner's suit. Do not add both for the same hand.

Do I count distribution points for notrump?

Not shortness points. A long running suit adds tricks in notrump too, so some players add a point for a good five-card suit, but singletons and voids are a weakness in notrump.