The Losing Trick Count

F. Dudley Courtenay described the losing trick count (LTC) in the 1930s, and Ron Klinger made it popular decades later. It was built for a gap that high-card points leave open. Points are a good guide for notrump and a rough one for suit contracts, and two hands with the same 24 points can produce eight tricks or eleven, depending on how the honors and the short suits fit together. LTC tries to measure that directly. It works best once you know you have an eight-card or longer trump fit.

Look at each suit separately and only at its first three cards. Each missing ace, king or queen among those cards is a loser, so no suit has more than three. Shorter suits have fewer possible losers.

Add the losers in the four suits. A minimum opening hand usually has 7 losers, and everything else in the method is measured from there.

Corrections

• Qxx is the weakest holding the basic count flatters. Many players count it as 2.5 losers, or as 3 unless partner has bid the suit or the hand has aces elsewhere.
• AQ doubleton counts as one loser, but it is worth a little more than Kx, because the queen may win a finesse.
• Singleton king counts as one loser, the same as a small singleton. Many players also stop counting its 3 points, since it rarely takes a trick.
• Aces against queens. Klinger suggests adding half a loser when the hand has more queens than aces, and taking off half a loser when it has more aces than queens.
• Tens and jacks do not change the count, but KJ10 or QJ10 is better than the plain count says.

The formula fits on one line. 24 minus the combined losers of both hands equals the number of tricks the partnership can expect in its trump fit. Two hands with 7 losers each give 24 - 14 = 10 tricks, enough for four of a major. Hands of 8 and 7 losers should produce 9 tricks.

In the auction you only know your own losers, so you assume partner's from the bidding so far. Most players work from these figures:

Responder has a quicker version. Add your losers to opener's 7 and subtract the total from 18, and the result is the level to bid. Holding 9 losers, 18 - 16 = 2, so you make a single raise. Eight losers is worth a raise to three, and 7 is worth game. Opener does the same after a raise, assuming 9 losers for a single raise and 8 for a limit raise.

Look at the third row. The balanced 14-count in the third row has as many losers as the 6-count in the second, and the shapely 12-count in the last row has fewer losers than either opening hand above it.

A game that points miss

The same deal shows the risk in reverse. If South held ♠Q97 ♥Q5 ♦K843 ♣8742 instead, about the same strength but with three trumps and no singleton, there would be 9 losers and a single raise would be right.

Flat hands with plenty of points

• It needs a fit. Without eight trumps between the hands, the count has nothing to say. Do not use it for notrump or misfits.
• It ignores duplication. Two hands with singletons in the same suit both count few losers there, but the shortness only saves tricks once.
• It ignores wasted honors. A king opposite partner's singleton counts as a winner, but it rarely takes a trick.
• It flatters flat hands. Two balanced hands with an eight-card fit often take a trick fewer than the formula suggests, as the second deal shows.
• It ignores the side suit. A long side suit that can be set up is worth more than the count gives it.

These flaws led to the New Losing Trick Count, published by Johannes Sobotta in The Bridge World in 2003. It weighs the missing cards differently. A missing ace costs 1.5 losers, a missing king 1 and a missing queen 0.5, and the total is subtracted from 25 instead of 24. Aces end up worth more and queens less, which matches what simulations show. The new count is more accurate, but it is a little harder to do at the table, and plenty of good players still use the original.

LTC fits naturally with conventions that show a raise in steps. Bergen raises separate constructive raises from limit raises, and Jacoby 2NT handles the game-forcing ones, so a loser count of 9, 8 or 7 maps to a bid in each.

What is the losing trick count in bridge?

The losing trick count is a hand evaluation method for suit contracts with a trump fit. Each partner counts the losers in their hand, and the partnership subtracts the combined total from 24 to estimate how many tricks it can take.

How do you count losing tricks in bridge?

Look at the first three cards of each suit and count one loser for each missing ace, king or queen among them. A singleton has at most one loser, a doubleton at most two, and a longer suit at most three.

What is the losing trick count formula?

Add your losers to partner's and subtract the total from 24. The result is the number of tricks the partnership can expect in its trump fit.

How many losers does an opening hand have?

A minimum opening hand usually has 7 losers. A hand with 5 or 6 losers is worth a strong rebid, and 4 or fewer is in the range of a strong 2♣ opening.

Does the losing trick count work in notrump?

No. The method assumes ruffs and a trump fit. For notrump contracts, use high-card points.

What is the New Losing Trick Count?

A refinement that counts a missing ace as 1.5 losers, a missing king as 1 and a missing queen as 0.5, and subtracts the total from 25. It values aces more and queens less than the original.