Suit Break Odds
Suit break odds are the chances that the cards missing in a suit are divided a given way between the two unseen hands. With five missing, a 3-2 break comes up 67.8 percent of the time, a 4-1 break 28.3 and a 5-0 break 3.9. The table covers every split from two to eight missing cards.
Updated 13 October 2026
Four missing cards split 3-1 more often than 2-2, at 49.74 percent against 40.70, and that surprises many players who expect the even split to lead. The table below lists every division of two to eight missing cards, each with its a priori chance. Five missing is the case most declarers want, and there the 3-2 break comes in at 67.83 percent.
2 missing
- 1-1
- 52.00%
- 2-0
- 48.00%
3 missing
- 2-1
- 78.00%
- 3-0
- 22.00%
4 missing
- 3-1
- 49.74%
- 2-2
- 40.70%
- 4-0
- 9.57%
5 missing
- 3-2
- 67.83%
- 4-1
- 28.26%
- 5-0
- 3.91%
6 missing
- 4-2
- 48.45%
- 3-3
- 35.53%
- 5-1
- 14.53%
- 6-0
- 1.49%
7 missing
- 4-3
- 62.17%
- 5-2
- 30.52%
- 6-1
- 6.78%
- 7-0
- 0.52%
8 missing
- 5-3
- 47.12%
- 4-4
- 32.72%
- 6-2
- 17.14%
- 7-1
- 2.86%
- 8-0
- 0.16%
Odd and even numbers missing
An odd number of missing cards tends to split as evenly as it can, so with five out the 3-2 break is the one to expect.
From four upward, an even number tends to split unevenly. Four cards favor 3-1 over 2-2, and six cards favor 4-2 at 48.45 percent over 3-3 at 35.53. The reason is counting. There are four ways to give one defender three of the four cards and six ways to give each defender two. The 3-1 can go either way round, though, which makes it eight against six before the vacant places are weighed.
Where the figures come from
The two defenders hold 26 unseen cards, 13 each. For a given split the arithmetic counts the ways to deal the missing cards in that proportion and the rest of each hand around them, then divides by all the possible deals of those 26 cards. The chances for each number of missing cards add up to 100 percent.
A priori means before any information arrives. Once a defender has shown length in another suit, or shows out, the vacant places change and so do the odds. A player who has bid a long suit is less likely to hold length in yours.
Vacant places and a second suit
The calculator takes the a priori figure a step further. Set the cards missing, then say how many cards each defender has already shown elsewhere, from the bidding or from a suit that has been played out. Those cards fill places in that hand, and the missing cards have fewer places left to go there. A defender who has shown a six-card suit has seven vacant places against partner's thirteen, and the odds of the long holding swing toward the other defender.
A priori, nothing known about either defender. The likeliest break of 5 missing cards is 3-2, at 67.83%.
| Break | West long | East long | Either way |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | 33.91% | 33.91% | 67.83% |
| 4-1 | 14.13% | 14.13% | 28.26% |
| 5-0 | 1.96% | 1.96% | 3.91% |
The second suit setting prices two breaks together, which is the question when a contract needs both of its long suits to behave. Length in one suit leaves less room for length in the other, so the two breaks are not independent and the joint figure is not the product of the two. Read the rows as the chance that both suits divide as shown, either way round.
Using the table in play
The figures tell you what a line has to beat. A 5-0 break at 3.91 percent is worth guarding against only when the safety play costs nothing in the normal case. A 4-0 break of four missing cards, at 9.57 percent, deserves far more respect. For a missing queen the same numbers decide finesse or drop, and full holdings are worked through in suit combinations.
Common questions
Short answers to what readers ask most.
- What are the odds of a 3-2 break in bridge?
- A 3-2 break comes up 67.83 percent of the time when five cards are missing. The 4-1 break follows at 28.26 percent and the 5-0 break at 3.91.
- Is a 2-2 or a 3-1 break more likely?
- The 3-1 break is more likely, at 49.74 percent against 40.70 for 2-2. From four missing cards upward, an even number usually splits unevenly.
- How often do four missing cards break 4-0?
- Four missing cards break 4-0 in 9.57 percent of deals, roughly one time in ten, split between the two defenders.
- Do suit break odds change during the play?
- Yes. The table shows a priori odds. Every card a defender plays or shows out on, and every suit bid in the auction, shifts the chances of the remaining splits.
- How do vacant places change the odds of a break?
- Each card a defender is known to hold elsewhere takes up one of that hand's thirteen places, so the missing cards are more likely to sit with the other defender. The calculator applies the exact count for any number of known cards.
Practice: suit break odds
Eight quick questions on what you just read. For a longer session, take the hundred-question quiz.
